Research Report

TSMC: Growth Is Strong.
The Shareholder Payoff Is Less Certain.

Research cutoff
Published
Reference Price
TSM $451.05 and SPY $767.29, September 24, 2026.

TSMC — sources

Research cutoff: September 25, 2026 at 12:47 a.m. MDT. Links identify the evidence used for that dated assessment; a linked page may subsequently change. Figures, dates and qualifications are taken from the approved research. No new source retrieval is represented by this editorial register.

IDSourceUse and limitation
S01TSMC, 2025 Form 20-F, year ended December 31, 2025Business, risks, IASB-IFRS financial statements, governance, audit opinions, commitments and customer concentration. Filed information does not certify the investment thesis.
S02TSMC, 2024 Form 20-FPrior business, risk, tax, incentive and commitment disclosures. No complete word-for-word annual comparison is claimed.
S03TSMC, Q2/H1 2026 consolidated financial statements, June 30, 2026Taiwan-IFRS earnings, cash flows, leases, tax, investments and subsidiaries. Separate lease prepayment: printed page 8; equipment-payable reconciliation: printed page 40, note 29. Text extraction, not a visual audit.
S04TSMC, Q1 2026 statements, April 16 earnings call, and Q1 releaseFirst-quarter USD revenue, margins, expansion and demand context. Earlier capital-spending guidance is superseded by July guidance.
S05TSMC, amended Q2 earnings call, July 16, 2026, August-hosted revisionVIS EPS attribution, revenue outlook, investment and ramp-cost guidance. Customer plans are not guaranteed noncancelable orders.
S06TSMC, 2026 monthly revenue, through August, released September 10Unaudited monthly and year-to-date sales. Does not establish margins or cash collection.
S07NVIDIA, Q2 FY2027 results, August 26, and earnings callReported revenue, data-center demand and outlook. Does not establish end-user investment returns.
S08Broadcom, Q3 FY2026 results, September 2AI revenue and guidance. Custom accelerators can still depend on the same cloud budgets.
S09Microsoft, FY2026 fourth-quarter results, July 2026Operating cash, cash equipment spending and Azure growth. Cash equipment spending omits some lease investment.
S10Meta, Q2 2026 results, July 2026Operating cash and investment including finance-lease principal. Definitions and period differ from other customer comparisons.
S11Amazon, Q2 2026 results, July 2026Trailing cash flows and AWS growth. The reported Anthropic accounting gain is not treated as recurring cash funding.
S12Samsung, Q2 2026 results, July 2026Foundry orders and plans; not proof of yield parity or comparable standalone returns.
S13Intel, June 27, 2026 Form 10-QFoundry segment revenue, intersegment sales and operating loss. Internal transfers are not external market-share gains.
S14ASE, 310×310 panel initiative, May 26, 2026Announced packaging approach and initial-production target; commercial yield is not established.
S15TSMC, August 11, 2026 board decisionsDividend, capital appropriations and Sony-venture authorization. Authorization does not establish cash timing.
S16TSMC, ASML partnership, September 8, 2026; news index; financial calendarLong-term technology milestones, issuer news and calendar context. Distant milestones are not twelve-month earnings catalysts. Dynamic indexes limit completeness.
S17US Bureau of Industry and Security, China semiconductor license policy, January 13, 2026, and foreign-owned fab controls, August 29, 2025Specific official policy announcements, not legal advice or certification of all current rules.
S18US Department of Commerce, TSMC Arizona CHIPS award, November 15, 2024, alongside S01/S03 grant notesConditional funding and loans; an award is not all cash received.
S19IMF, Europe and the Global AI Race, displayed publication September 21, 2026Leverage and circular-financing concerns. A speech about mechanisms, not a TSM-specific forecast or probability.
S20ChartExchange, TSM historical prices and SPY historical prices, September 24, 2026 sessionOriginal snapshots and separately disclosed corrected-source marks; not an official exchange auction certificate.
S21State Street, SPY sponsor page, September 23, 2026 data; FinanceCharts SPY price comparisonSponsor valuation, yield, fee and concentration inputs. Weighted forward P/E is not an independently established earnings forecast; alternative adjusted prices can use a different method.
S22US Treasury, September 2026 daily par curve; TreasuryDirect auction resultsSeptember 24 one-year indicative yield. No executable matched-security quote was established.
S23Marcus by Goldman Sachs, high-yield CDs, September 24, 2026 offer; CD guideAPY, minimum deposit and withdrawal terms. Eligibility and available insurance capacity are not assumed.
S24TSMC, FAQ and dividend information; Citi, ADR dividend information, September 25 snapshotFive ordinary shares per ADR, withholding and dividend timing. Future USD payments and fees are not all verified; forecast entitlements are assumptions.
S25TSMC condensed financials: 2026 Q2, 2026 Q1, 2025 Q4, 2025 Q3, 2024 Q4, 2024 Q3Eight discrete Taiwan-IFRS quarters, including prior-year comparisons. Rounded condensed cash flows can differ from exact full-statement figures.
S26TSMC, 2023 Form 20-FEarlier IASB-IFRS annual history; not current outlook authority.