Sources & Reading Scope
Source links, reading locations and limitations supporting this report. Return to the Analysis.
Research cutoff: September 23, 2026 at 2:44 p.m. MDT. Filings establish reported figures, not an independent audit; management statements do not prove future outcomes. No third-party documents are supplied for redistribution.
S01 — Uber Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, August 5, 2026
Financial statements, segment results, investments and debt notes; quarter/half-year ended June 30
Limitations: Reported inputs; rounded margins and annualized costs are analyst transformations
S02 — Uber 2025 Form 10-K, February 13, 2026
Annual statements, cash flows and segment history underlying trailing bookings
Limitations: Historical evidence, not current guidance
S03 — Uber Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, May 6, 2026
Statements, notes and commitments
Limitations: Private commitment prices remain unavailable
S05 — Uber Q2 Prepared Remarks, August 5, 2026
Pages 1–7: growth, affordability, investment, productivity and advertising; full nine-page document also consulted
Limitations: Management explanation supports mechanism, not selected forecast margins or project returns
S07 — Stock Analysis UBER History, September 22 row
$69.89 reference close; September 23 conflicts retained
Limitations: Secondary provider; not a certified latest quote
S08 — State Street SPY Fund Page, September 22 data
$773.38 close, 0.0945% expense ratio, 0.98% distribution/NAV and 21.47 index forward earnings multiple
Limitations: Snapshot may change; 4%/8%/12% growth is ours, not sponsor guidance
S18 — Uber August 7 Financing 8-K, 2026
Item 1.01: facilities, letters of credit and conditional funding
Limitations: Available capacity is not assured future access
S19 — Term Agreement, August 2026
Defined maturities and conditional availability
Limitations: Equal tranche allocation is a model assumption
S20 — Revolver Agreement, August 2026
Definitions and interest/fee provisions
Limitations: 6% modeled borrowing cost is not a fixed contractual rate; no covenant headroom certification
S21 — Delivery Hero Acquisition Offer Announcement, July 16, 2026
Equity value and retained/divested perimeter
Limitations: Acquisition benefits and settlement remain prospective
S22 — Offer Publication Announcement, August 27, 2026
Owned stake 24.77%, expected closing and conditions
Limitations: Derivatives are not automatically owned shares; full executable offer reconciliation unavailable
S23 — Acquisition Presentation, July 16, 2026
Slides 3–5: retained earnings perimeter, $4.2 billion of mixed claims and currency assumptions
Limitations: $1.1 billion EBITDA is adjusted 2025 proxy; scenario multiples are analyst assumptions
S25 — September Financing 8-K, September 15, 2026
Item 8.01: euro debt issuance and maturities
Limitations: Cash proxy omits unknown intervening uses and fees
S33 — Lucid Second Vehicle Purchase Agreement, April 2026 filing
Sections 7–8: conditional purchases, operators and engineering-linked investment
Limitations: Redactions prevent project-profit reconstruction
S35 — Houston Robotaxi Announcement, June 17, 2026
Mixed fleet ownership and distribution plans
Limitations: Announcement is not realized utilization or profit
S37 — Business Combination Agreement, July 16, 2026
Preamble and clauses 1.2–1.7, 2.3, 5.1, 6.1: funding and closing
Limitations: Targeted scope; settlement and asset perimeter uncertainty remain
S40 — Delivery Hero H1 2026 Report, August 27, 2026
Pages 12, 17, 24, 27–28, 34–35: statements, debt, disposals, seller-note overlap
Limitations: Whole group differs from retained acquisition perimeter
S45 — Uber: Simpler, Faster Uber, September 2, 2026
Organizational statement: approximately 10% workforce reduction and planned reinvestment
Limitations: No verified dollar savings; cannot translate headcount directly to profit
Operating evidence maps to S01–05/S45; project possibilities to S33/S35; financing and acquired-value inputs to S01/S18–23/S25/S37/S40; benchmark and price inputs to S07/S08. Every growth, margin, discount, residual value, issuance-price and recovery assumption is the author's selected test unless explicitly identified as reported. Scenario output is author-generated; it is not external evidence or a probability distribution.
Source Scope and Dated Prices
The research cutoff remains September 23, 2026 at 2:44 p.m. MDT. The secondary provider lists September 23 closing prices of $69.42 for Uber and $767.81 for SPY. This analysis uses the September 22 reference prices.
S10 — Additional Source Detail
Uber Q3 2025 Results, November 4, 2025. Gross Bookings table supplies Mobility bookings of $25.111 billion and Delivery bookings of $23.322 billion removed in the true trailing-quarter roll. Older segment EBITDA is not mixed with after-SBC margins.
S02 — Additional Source Detail
Tax note pages 109–111 and tax-attribute risk: usable losses/credits depend on jurisdiction and taxable income; book deferred-tax assets are not added separately to model wealth.
S01 — Additional Source Detail
Reopened matched segment/bookings tables, June balance and July 31 cover share count; the forecast September balance is not an observed financial statement.
S05 — Additional Source Detail
Q2 remarks pages 7–8 and denominator footnote: next-few-years cash tax of 10–15%, applied to issuer non-GAAP pretax earnings; model uses an explicitly different core proxy. Q3 aggregate bookings guidance constrains an assumed segment nowcast; segment allocation is not management guidance.
S25 — Additional Source Detail
Item 8.01 coupon schedule: euro notes carry total annual coupons of EUR 0.200 billion; dollar translation and legacy interest remain assumptions.
Evidence & Assumptions contains the formulas and scenario families. The model's tax-relief measure includes ordinary interest shields and is not all deferred-tax-asset savings.
Lower-Risk Alternatives — Dated Primary Evidence
These are dated September 23 research inputs, not current executable rates. Actual funding dates and eligibility remain unknown.
A01 — Additional Source Detail
U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve: September 22, 2026 three-year column: 4.81%. Indicative curve, not a verified tradable note. Three-year simple coupon total: 14.43%; unchanged semiannual reinvestment: 15.325932%. No FDIC coverage; early-sale and reinvestment risk remain.
A02 — Additional Source Detail
Marcus CD Rates: September 23, 2026 three-year rate of 4.35% APY, minimum $500. Three-year hypothetical total = (1.0435^3 − 1) = 13.625906%, conditional on funding at that rate and retaining interest. Cannot be obtained retrospectively at a research mark.
A03 — Additional Source Detail
Marcus CD Information Guide: relevant early-withdrawal term for over-one-year through-five-year CDs is 180 days of interest on original principal, using contractual rate rather than APY. Other opening/withdrawal terms apply; no personal eligibility conclusion.
S38 — Additional Source Detail
Marcus FDIC Insurance: relevant insurance sections 138–241 and issuer footer read September 23. Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City Branch; eligible deposits aggregate at the same legal bank, generally $250,000 per depositor per ownership category, including other deposits and accrued interest. Actual reader coverage unknown.
S39 — Additional Source Detail
Marcus FAQs: relevant issuer/account-opening sections 416–422 read September 23, not the entire FAQ.
A04 — Additional Source Detail
IRS Topic 403: Interest Received: CD interest taxable; Treasury interest federally taxable but exempt from state/local income taxes. Do not extend the exemption automatically to sale gains or every discount component. No individualized after-tax ranking.
To compare with the model's September 30, 2029 endpoint, the illustrations retain maturity proceeds as cash for the extra eight days without assuming a renewal yield. Source terms do not promise an actual exactly matched purchase/maturity date. Rates, reinvestment, inflation and early-exit terms distinguish these products from equity scenarios.
Debt Assumptions
S01 Note 5 debt table confirms $1.324 billion June carrying value of the 2028 exchangeable notes within $12.723 billion debt, versus $1.150 billion principal. Notes are zero coupon with cash/reference-property settlement alternatives. The model removes all carrying debt and deducts selected cash once; $1.324 billion is a settlement proxy, not a known future payoff. Sensitivities include principal, $2 billion and $3 billion; none caps possible exchange exposure. Note 10 and MD&A include stock compensation in segment expenses. No extra SBC deduction or advertising-value add-on is made.
Adverse cost and joint valuation calculations and prospective cost tests are author work, not external facts.